bond prices Worsen

Mortgage bond prices opened weaker this morning adding to the slight losses from Friday afternoon which looked to push rates higher. Fortunately we bounced back a bit from the initial weakness but still remain weaker since pricing Friday morning.

The data this morning was not rate friendly. Retail sales rose 1.1%, analysts expected a 0.7% increase. That was it for the data today. Stocks and global news will dictate trade going forward. Stock futures were positive this morning and that held true at pricing with the DOW up 21 points. Stocks and bonds often trade inversely, though that is not an absolute.

Greece is the focus this morning as debate continues about an exit from the euro zone. Swedish finance minister Anders Borg indicated he expected a Greek exit within six months. Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble quickly countered that assertion, "I think it will not happen that there will be a state bankrupt in Greece.....Greece has to take a lot of very serious reforms and this will harm. Everyone is trusting that the Greek government is doing what is necessary.

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Mortgage bond prices

Mortgage bond prices are near unchanged mid-morning Wednesday failing to erase the losses seen Tuesday afternoon. MBS prices initially opened lower pressuring rates higher only to have buyers emerge taking prices higher.

Traders will spend the day watching stocks to help gauge interest rate direction as they wait for the auction and Fed Beige Book results. At the 10:00 am ET price point the Dow was down 34.

This afternoon the Treasury will auction $21B of 10-year notes with results by 1:15 pm ET. At 2:00 pm ET the Fed Beige Book will be released. The report details economic activity in all Federal Reserve districts.

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We have the Fed minutes this afternoon.

Mortgage bond prices opened near unchanged to slightly weaker following the data.

ADP employment rose 162K. Analysts expected an increase of 133K. This data was not rate friendly and the upper coupons saw more of a selloff than the lower coupons.

Stock futures are only slightly higher this morning as was the case yesterday morning. The DOW closed down 33 points yesterday. Stocks and bonds often trade inversely though not always.

News out of the euro zone took a new turn this morning with the head of the IMF predicting a recovery would take a decade. This is generally good news for U.S. debt instruments.

We have the Fed minutes this afternoon.

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Do jobs Numbers mean anything anymore?

Morgage bond prices remain positive this morning helping move rates in the right direction....lower. Rates were helped by worse than expected economic data first thing this morning.

Weekly jobless claims @382k, expected @ 375k. The bad jobs numbers has us starting the day on the right note.

Phildelphia Fed down 1.9, expected down 4.0, LEI down 0.5%, expected down 0.1%. Mixed data but seem to hold the gains so far.

The Wall Street Journal had an opinion piece this morning addressing the euro zone debt crisis. The key to the article was the following, "Could this be the beginning of the end of the euro zone's crisis? Unfortunately, the answer is "probably not." The crisis has been allowed to fester so long that the economic problem may now be too big to be addressed within the shrinking political space available."

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Downward pressure to mortgage rates.

Mortgage bond prices opened higher applying downward pressure to mortgage rates.

The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing report showed surprise weakness in that region. With that lack of any first tier data releases this morning that report has things rate friendly so far at the open. The reading came in down 10.4, the figure was the weakest in about 2 years.

News out of the euro zone indicated the trade surplus got bigger with fewer imports and higher wages.

There is no data til Wednesday with the housing releases. Stocks and news out of the euro zone will likely dictate trade.

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Don't Fight the Fed

Don't fight the Fed"
 
That's the message from the market in the wake of Thursday's blockbuster announcement of open-ended QE from the central bank.

After surging Thursday, major averages were rallying further Friday. In recent trading, the Dow (DJI) was up 0.5%, pushing further into multi-year-high territory.

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Mortgage bond prices are slightly lower mid-morning Tuesday applying upward pressure to mortgage rates. Trade is quiet.

In news released this morning, the US trade deficit stood at $42B. Analysts expected the deficit to increase $1.9B to $44B.

With no more news set for release today, traders will spend the day watching stocks as they wait for the results of the Treasury auction of $32B of 3-year notes. At the 10:00 am ET price point the Dow was up 52 points. Auction results will be published by 1:15 pm ET.

Overnight trade in Asia and Europe was quiet. Global market participants are mostly sidelined as they wait for two key events to unfold this week. In Germany, a high court ruling on the constitutionality of the European Stability Mechanism is set for Wednesday. Thursday the Federal Reserve will announce any changed to monetary policy when the governing body concludes their two day meeting. It is believed the German court will rule the bailout fund constitutional, however they may place limits or other requirements on the fund. In the US, traders are expecting Ben Bernanke to announce QE3.

The events on Wednesday and Thursday will make history and most likely cause market volatility. It is unlikely the German court is going to give the green light to the ECB without any stipulations. The ruling may lead to more uncertainty for the euro-zone. In the US, traders are hopeful Mr. Bernanke will offer an open ended QE3 and include more mortgage debt in future purchases.

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